Date: May 31, 2011 Associated Press Click to read the orginal article Sarah Palin draws crowds with her hide-and-seek bus tour. Michele Bachmann says Palin's plans won't dissuade her from her likely presidential bid. Iowa GOP activists travel to New Jersey to implore Gov. Chris Christie to run, and Texas Gov. Rick Perry weighs a campaign. The Republican presidential field is far less settled than it seemed just a week ago, and it shows few signs of jelling soon. With campaigning off to a slow start in early-voting states, half a dozen potential candidates are mulling whether to jump in. So keen is the interest, among journalists at least, that two news helicopters tracked Palin's East Coast bus trip to Philadelphia on Tuesday. The stepped-up interest follows decisions by three prominent Republicans -- Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee and Mitch Daniels -- to forgo a campaign, making the field less crowded than some had expected. Meanwhile, GOP activists don't appear ready to start narrowing their choices just yet. They seem unconcerned that an important Iowa straw poll is 74 days away and President Barack Obama's re-election team is setting up shop in dozens of states.
Unease about presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney is prompting some
Republican activists to continue casting about for new faces, such as
Perry or Christie, or even familiar faces, such as Palin or Rudy
Giuliani. Other party insiders, however, say the talk is unfair
to Romney and other candidates. Several of them could prove to be
formidable challengers to Obama, these Republicans say. "Look at
the housing numbers today," said Republican consultant Danny Diaz,
referring to a key index of home prices that hit its lowest level in
nine years. Obama will be vulnerable on housing, jobs and the overall
economy, Diaz said, and the eventual Republican nominee's clout will
make the current hand-wringing seem foolish in retrospect. One thing is non-debatable: The race is off to a much slower start than was the 2008 version. In
Iowa, which holds the nation's first caucus, campaign traffic had
reached deeply into the 99 counties at this stage four years ago. Now,
it has barely scratched the surface, said Crawford County GOP Chairwoman
Gwen Ecklund. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has visited
the state more than a dozen times. And Bachmann, a third-term U.S. House
member from Minnesota, has signaled plans to campaign aggressively in
Iowa if she runs for the nomination. But only former Sen. Rick
Santorum of Pennsylvania, who registers scant support in national polls,
has visited Ecklund's county, part of GOP-rich western Iowa. "There
isn't a whole lot of commitment or excitement for any one candidate
yet," Ecklund said. The biggest excitement in recent days has
surrounded Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential
nominee. Her bus tour, which stopped Tuesday at the Gettysburg
battlefield, Liberty Bell and New York City, is equal parts carnival,
photo op and breezy history lesson. Her meeting and dinner with
real estate mogul and almost-candidate Donald Trump did nothing to tamp
down the frenzy and frothiness. Palin refuses to give reporters
her schedule, and then gently upbraids them for their pell-mell efforts
to locate, photograph and interview her. It's not clear that she will
run for president, and some suspect her "One Nation" tour is designed
mainly to support her lucrative book sales and TV appearances. If Palin
does run for president, many Republican strategists feel she will do
poorly, as her combative nature has driven down her approval ratings
among GOP voters and others. Yet by some counts, more than 100 journalists trooped alongside Palin in
Philadelphia, an entourage that Pawlenty and others can only dream of.
"It's quite chaotic anywhere we get off on the bus," Palin acknowledged. Rich
Nutinsky of Chadds Ford, Pa., returned to downtown Philadelphia on
Tuesday after failing to find Palin there Monday. "I wished her luck and
told her I supported her," Nutinsky said. "To me, she's a breath of
fresh air." Palin said she has not decided whether to run, even
as she fueled speculation by saying her bus tour eventually will reach
New Hampshire and Iowa. In New Hampshire, Bachmann hinted
Tuesday at her own likely campaign. She participated in WKXL radio's
"Road to the Whitehouse" series, repeating earlier statements that she
thinks the race can accommodate herself and Palin. Some
political strategists doubt it. Palin and Bachmann appeal to social
conservatives and non-establishment Republicans, including many tea
party advocates. Such voters are more prominent in Iowa's caucus than in
New Hampshire's primary. Even if someone like Bachmann does
well in Iowa, it's not clear she could carry her success into New
Hampshire, seen by many as playing a more important role in the
nominating process. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who spent
heavily in Iowa but lost four years ago, is paying considerably more
attention this year to New Hampshire, where he has a second home. Former
Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, seen as a potentially strong rival to Romney
and Pawlenty, has virtually ignored Iowa thus far. Former House Speaker
Newt Gingrich, however, has begun building a network there. Republican
activists who are dissatisfied with the field are urging Christie and
Perry, among others, to overrule their earlier decisions not to run. It
may be a tough case to make, said veteran Republican strategist Terry
Holt. "It's far easier to test the waters than to commit to a
very long, very expensive, very hard campaign," Holt said. "A lot of
Republican activists would like to have a silver bullet in the gun, but I
don't think there are any silver bullets." Nominations usually
go to battle-tested candidates who can raise money, inspire grassroots
groups and survive "a long, hard slog," Holt said. Some campaign
veterans say the contenders most likely to fill that bill are Romney,
Pawlenty and Huntsman, although Palin's star power is hard to measure. Carl
Forti, a Republican strategist and fundraiser, said the hoopla
surrounding Palin's tour and the entreaties to Christie and Perry may be
footnotes in the 2012 election story. "Only a small percentage
of the Republican primary electorate is paying attention," Forti said.
"I don't think what is happening now has much impact." For all
the talk of new faces, Forti said, Romney "has a good shot to win the
nomination" and to give Obama a strong challenge. The election will turn
on jobs and the economy, he said, "and that is Romney's bread and
butter." |